Poll Guru Sabato: Clinton Beats Trump 347-to-191 In General

Poll Guru Sabato: Clinton Beats Trump 347-to-191 In General

The map, from University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato, shows Clinton beating Trump 347-to-191.   Even though Clinton is the weakest Democrat.

Although some polls show Clinton beating Cruz by a narrow margin, most have shown Cruz beating Clinton.

The one thing disagree with Larry most on is Clinton being a shoo in. Bernie can win and Hillary can also go to jail or just being indicted would likely sink her. One thing being reported in polls that I have observed as being true, is that Trump has huge negatives with women.

Below is Larry take on election as of today:


We live in a post-factual era. Thanks to the Internet and social media, which mix informed and uninformed views in equal measure, the old rule — that people are entitled to their own opinions but not their own set of facts — no longer applies. Somewhere in cyberspace, you can now find blogs and treatises with “facts” that support your opinions, no matter how bizarre.

Here at the Crystal Ball, though, we are going to cling to one central fact about presidential elections: The only thing that matters is accumulating a majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College.

Creating Electoral College projections is a marvelous parlor game, and we’ve been doing so here since we obtained our magical sphere of crystal from China many years ago. (All other details shall remain confidential.)

We’re now at the point in the nominating process where it is, er, crystal clear that Hillary Clinton will end up being the Democratic candidate, and Donald Trump, while not at all the certain winner, is the leading candidate to become the Republican nominee. So it’s time to adjust our 2016 electoral map for the first time since we rolled out our initial ratings last May. That map, shown below as Map 1, reflected a generic Democrat versus Republican matchup, and it depicted a close, competitive general election.

Map 1: First version of Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings, May 2015

The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.

Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!

Our new map is one that will evolve, maybe substantially, after the conventions. Remember that independent and/or third-party candidates could change the calculus. Nonetheless, here is our extra-early, ridiculously premature projection of the Electoral College map in a possible Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup. Yielding completely to boldness, or recklessness, we eliminated Toss-ups, and leaned all states to one or the other nominee. Each state’s electoral history, developing demographics, and current polling data guided our choices.

Map 2: Revised Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings for a Clinton vs. Trump matchup

Table 1: Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College rating changes

Read More: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/

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