Trump leads with 37 percent among registered Republicans in California, according to a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Sunday. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows with 30 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails with 12 percent.
But that is not likely voters, a historically more accurate gauge.
Cruz gains on Trump and makes it a closer race when looking at those who are most likely to vote in the state’s June 7 primary: Trump and Cruz then run neck-and-neck, earning 36 percent and 35 percent support, respectively. Cruz is the only one to have gained in the last 3 consecutive polls.
In polls that is within the error of margin
Trump leads his opponents in most areas of the state. Cruz tends to do well with conservative voters in the Central Valley, according to the poll. Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-california-primary-221263#ixzz448fhpzvJ
This latest poll shows Cruz surging with Trump about even and Kasich slowly fading.
RealClearPolitics as of today shows:
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Trump
|
Cruz
|
Kasich
|
Rubio
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/6 – 3/23 | — | — | 34.3 | 26.0 | 15.8 | 14.0 | Trump +8.3 |
| LA Times | 3/16 – 3/23 | 332 LV | 5.5 | 36 | 35 | 14 | — | Trump +1 |
| PPIC | 3/6 – 3/15 | 321 LV | 7.3 | 38 | 27 | 14 | — | Trump +11 |
| Landslide/NSON | 3/9 – 3/10 | 407 LV | 4.9 | 38 | 22 | 20 | 10 | Trump +16 |
| Smith Johnson Research | 3/7 – 3/9 | 454 LV | 4.0 | 25 | 20 | 15 | 18 | Trump +5 |