John McLean writes of a new paper about the pattern in global average temperature anomalies since 1950 and how they are linked to changes in cloud cover and ENSO:
Key points of the paper:
- Indicates that the temperature pattern can be attributed to a
sequence of events, namely a shift in the prevailing ENSO conditions,
then a reduction in total cloud cover and then a shift on cloud
(decrease in low level cloud that was largely offset by an increase
in mid and upper level cloud)
- Uses the Trenberth, Fasulo & Kiehl energy balance diagram to show
that the loss in total cloud cover caused an increase in heat energy
being absorbed at the Earth’s surface that was greater than the
increase that IPCC 5AR claims was due to greenhouse gases
- Indicates that greenhouse gases played little if any part in the
warming, which not only refutes the IPCC’s belief or opinion but also
means that there is negligible, or even no, 16 or more years’ of
“missing heat” to be found.
- Shows the changes in cloud cover and temperature both as global
averages and then for the six latitude bands each of 30 degrees, the
latter indicating the changes in cloud cover applied to most latitude
bands except the Antarctic and to a less extent 30S-60S.
- Doesn’t attempt to identify the reason for the reduction in total
cloud cover or the shift from low level cloud.
On the last point above, I think a reduction in micro-particle emissions probably contributed. The disappearance of London’s “pea soup” fogs after the ban on the burning of coal is probably a good precedent. It would be ironic if the reduction in micro-particle emissions was due to government legislation because that would mean that the warming was manmade. To be fair though, it was probably the first deliberate attempt to clean up the atmosphere even if it didn’t come with a warning about possible changes to weather patterns. We also shouldn’t forget that there may be other causes, such as changes to cooking fuel in the tropics. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/30/new-paper-links-warming-since-1950-to-enso-and-cloud-cover-variations/