This bombshell dropped on Friday afternoon
but I decided to hold off on writing it up until today so it didn’t get lost in the weekend shuffle. I’ll let Allahpundit tee up some context: “So jaw-dropping is [the report], I had to read it twice to make sure I wasn’t misreading it. The site that posted it isn’t partisan either: It’s The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, a ‘data journalism’ hub a la Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight that prioritizes insights gleaned from number-crunching above left/right argumentation.” Not only is this data presented in a nonpartisan mainstream media venue, the researchers’ proposed antidote to the problem isn’t one that’s likely to be embraced by many conservatives — namely, considering granting voting rights to non-citizens. AP also notes that this piece was published just hours after Jim Geraghty wrote a post bemoaning the Right’s paranoia about voter fraud. Electoral cheating is not the “myth” the Left pretends it is, Geraghty argued, but it’s not so prevalent that it’s routinely responsible for stolen elections. I still find Geraghty’s overall admonition compelling, but this evidence strongly suggests that election-altering fraud may not be quite as rare as even I’d assumed. Astonishing stuff, via researchers at Old Dominion University:
Did Illegal Aliens Give Obama the 2012 Election?
Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.
In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.
Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.
How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
|Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens|
|Self reported and/or verified||38 (11.3%)||13 (3.5%)|
|Self reported and verified||5 (1.5%)||N.A.|
|Adjusted estimate||21 (6.4%)||8 (2.2%)|
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted.
An alternative approach to reducing non-citizen turnout might emphasize public information. Unlike other populations, including naturalized citizens, education is not associated with higher participation among non-citizens. In 2008, non-citizens with less than a college degree were significantly more likely to cast a validated vote, and no non-citizens with a college degree or higher cast a validated vote. This hints at a link between non-citizen voting and lack of awareness about legal barriers.
There are obvious limitations to our research, which one should take account of when interpreting the results. Although the CCES sample is large, the non-citizen portion of the sample is modest, with the attendant uncertainty associated with sampling error. We analyze only 828 self-reported non-citizens. Self-reports of citizen status might also be a source of error, although the appendix of our paper shows that the racial, geographic, and attitudinal characteristics of non-citizens (and non-citizen voters) are consistent with their self-reported status.
Legalizing Millions of Illegals Permanently Changes The Landscape of the US in Favor of Democrats and Costs Taxpayers
Reports that as many as 34 Million green cards and work permits have been ordered by the Obama Administration fueling speculation that a huge move to legalize millions of illegals is coming… right after the election. A proposal from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services was recently posted online as a draft. When asked a direct question, Press Secretary Josh Earnest said the proposal was just for the ‘paper’, sidestepping the issue completely.
It is said that Obama’s initial ‘amnesty’ will cover up to 9 million illegals immediately. These are ‘workers’ most of which are head of households making the number much higher. Predictions are that this ‘amnesty’ will cover an additional 4 million per year for five years.
Obama has promised to change US immigration policy and push for amnesty since he was first elected in 2008, illegal protests and illegal advocacy groups want to make sure this happens and, because it is not popular among citizens, Obama has pushed it back to after the elections next month.
In addition to making it legal for these illegals to apply for jobs that Americans will do, it also makes them eligible for up to 80 different welfare and aid programs, or $28,000 a year per household.
The pro-amnesty racist group La Raza slipped one of it’s own into the Obama staff at the White House in 2008. Cecilia Muñoz, Senior Vice President of La Raza was been appointed to the intergovernmental affairs position in the Obama White House. This was on top of the appointment of pro-amnesty for illegal aliens Bill Richardson as the Commerce Secretary. Anyone who didn’t see all these pro-amnesty people being appointed into the Obama administration simply weren’t paying attention.
Cecilia Muñoz, Director of Intergovernmental Affairs