Sun Has Gone Quiet, Will Earth Cool?

Sun Has Gone Quiet, Will Earth Cool?

If history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time will reduce global temperatures.  Whereas “Carbon Global Coolers” in the 1970s were proved wrong in their prediction of an ice age unless we reduced carbon emissions and “Carbon Global Warmers” climate models have been proven wrong over the last 15 years, those that doubted both have been proven right.  The Carbon Climate doubters instead suggest solar activity, volcanic eruptions and ocean currents are the more dominate drivers of climate.    They do have a good record.  They predicted global cooling after major eruptions such as Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo, and that did occur.

This recent AUN-TV article shows a chart of the last 4,500 years of earth temperatures http://aun-tv.com/climatologist-explains-on-camera-climate-change-is-the-norm-78-major-changes-in-last-4500-years/  which notes solar radiation is a major factor.

Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century.

solar_peak

Consequences of a weak solar cycle First, the weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.

Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”.  Read more here:  Cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-100Years-

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